What a 160-Year-Old Theory About Coal Predicts About Our Self-Driving Future

This article explores how the Jevons paradox, a 19th-century economic theory, can help predict the potential environmental and safety downsides of autonomous vehicles.

  • Self-driving cars are gaining momentum again: Despite a tough year for the autonomous vehicle industry, companies like Cruise, Waymo, and Tesla are expanding services.
  • Jevons paradox and coal efficiency: A 19th-century theory by William Stanley Jevons explains how greater efficiency in resource use leads to more overall consumption — a concept that applies to the rise of autonomous vehicles.
  • Increased driving due to AV convenience: Self-driving cars could make driving more convenient and enjoyable, leading to longer trips and more miles driven, which would increase emissions and risks.
  • Historical lessons from coal and highways: Efficiency improvements in both coal use and highway expansions resulted in higher overall consumption, showing a pattern that could repeat with autonomous vehicles.
  • Environmental and safety benefits may be overstated: While AVs promise safer and cleaner driving, increased usage may offset these benefits, leading to more pollution and accidents.

The full post is available here.